Source: Economist special report on telecoms in emerging markets
Finishing the job is a useful overview of mobile phone uptake and Internet access world-wide and how these are expected to change. It also contains an OLPC-oriented discussion about whether it will ultimately be phones or "netbooks" that become the dominant means by which users access the Internet. (Phones are in the ascendency, it seems, though the boundary between them is getting increasingly blurred.) Excerpt:
"On the face of it, those in the mobile camp seem to have won. Mobile phones are now seen as a vital tool of development, whereas Mr Negroponte’s laptop project has failed to meet its ambitious goals. But although his engineers have so far only managed to get the cost of their elegant laptop down to about $150, they have shown what is possible with a low-cost design, and helped create today’s vibrant netbook market. If netbooks do indeed become the preferred devices to access the internet in the developing world, Mr Negroponte will have had the last laugh. But if those netbooks turn out to be, in effect, large mobile phones with keyboards that access the internet via mobile networks, as also seems likely, Mr Quadir and his camp can claim to have won the day. Technological progress in devices and networks seems to have rendered the debate moot: the important thing is that internet access will be on its way to becoming as widespread as mobile phones."
Why does it have to be either/or? In this ALT-C paper by Laura Czerniewicz et al highlight the use of mobile phones by South African students where their choice is determined to some extent by their circumstances. People/students will seize whatever opportunities present themselves to access information and services that attract them and are useful to their lives.
Socio-economic factors will influence choice of access technology. Personally, when my darling iPhone does not shape up I resort to desktop - but I am lucky enough to have that choice. Not everyone does.
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Frances - I do not think it is either/or, but may have given the impression that I think that it is. Indeed the quoted excerpt ends "Technological progress in devices and networks seems to have rendered the debate moot: the important thing is that internet access will be on its way to becoming as widespread as mobile phones", and the chart compares mobile internet access with fixed. Seb
Posted by: Frances Bell | 26/09/2009 at 19:05
Thanks for the pointer to this very interesting Economist piece, Seb. It raises important issues. Amongst other things, I am intrigued by how different the figures are about mobile penetration, as local reputable figures have South Africa down as 67% penetration which is far cry from 100% as reported here by the ITU rep. Funnily enough I have just blogged about these sorts of issues. Laura
Posted by: Laura | 28/09/2009 at 12:17